Economic crisis

A few posts ago I said:

“Unless there is an economic crisis or extreme interest rate rise I don’t see how this is going to happen in just a few years (not even the 7 years of the last downturn). It seems more likely to me that we’ll have a property downturn for a decade or more finally resulting in fair value, before we start the march up again. “

I think we’ve just been through a bit of a banking crisis so perhaps lending criteria will dry/stiffen up sufficiently to sustain about 15% a year nominal drops, which gives us a 50% drop in only 3 years. I still think that’s unlikely but with inflation near 5%, the drops in real terms could be of that order.

Author: John Kingham

I cover both the theory and practice of investing in high-quality UK dividend stocks for long-term income and growth.