A recurring theme in the news recently has been the global bond market sell-off and its impact on defensive shares, specifically those being branded as “bond proxies”.
There’s a good article on this subject on the Woodford Investment Management blog. In short, their conclusion was that a prolonged bond sell-off was unlikely in the short-term, but that “Credit markets are in dangerous valuation territory where capital losses ultimately look inevitable in the long-term.”
I’m not going to argue with Neil Woodford’s team; no doubt they are all immeasurably more intelligent and better informed than I am. What I will do though is take their basic proposition, that a major bond sell-off or bear market is virtually inevitable in the long run, and use that to investigate the risk that some defensive sectors may not be as defensive as some investors think.
Continue reading “The defensive sectors most at risk from a bond market sell-off”