Why Tate & Lyle PLC isn’t on my buy list

Tate & Lyle PLC no longer runs the branded sugar or syrup businesses it’s famous for, but the company is still an interesting and relatively defensive option for many investors.

With its shares trading at 675p Tate & Lyle’s dividend yield is 4.2%, which is slightly above the FTSE 100’s yield of 3.8% (with the index at 6,900).

That high yield is attractive, especially for investors who are fond of dividends, as I am. Another positive is that the company paid a dividend in every one of the last ten years, and also increased that dividend almost every year.

However, despite its attractive dividend yield and dividend history, I won’t be buying any Tate & Lyle shares at their current price. Here’s why.

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3 Super-high yield stocks for brave investors

Super-high-yield investing involves buying shares where the dividend yield is close to or above twice the market yield. Of course, this means taking on more risk, but the returns can be much greater as well.

For example, when I bought UK Mail in 2011 it had a yield of 8.6% because the market expected a dividend cut. The cut never came and within a year I sold UK Mail for a total return of 32%.

An even faster re-rating occurred after I bought N Brown in 2012 with a yield of 5.4%. Just eight months later the share price had increased by 47% and I sold N Brown for a total return of 52%.

Although I don’t invest in many of these situations they have, on average, worked out quite well over the years. The trick, of course, is to try to separate out those companies that can sustain the dividend from those that are about to cut or suspend it.

In November’s Master Investor magazine, I reviewed three super-high yield companies (N Brown, Carillion and Connect Group) in order to highlight some of the factors I look at in order to separate out the wheat from the chaff.

There are no guarantees of course, but hopefully you’ll find something useful in there.

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Five inflation-beating dividend stocks

Dividends tend to rise faster than inflation, and that could become their most attractive feature if the value of the pound and the interest rate on savings keep falling.

With inflation in mind, I decided to focus my latest article for Master Investor magazine on a handful of UK stocks that combine a decent dividend yield today with super-consistent and inflation-beating dividend growth.

The five companies in question are The Restaurant Group, Sky, Stagecoach Group, British American Tobacco and Capita.

What I learned from analysing them is that – unsurprisingly- very few stocks can combine consistent past growth with a decent dividend yield today and bright future prospects.

Most of those five companies have problems of one sort or another, although having said that, I do hold The Restaurant Group and British American Tobacco in both the UKVI portfolio and my personal portfolio.

You can download just the article or the entire Master Investor magazine (which this month is about how to protect your portfolio from inflation) using the links below.

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5 Reasons why BT’s shares could be riskier than you think

BT is a company which is known to virtually everyone in the UK and its shares are a favourite among investors seeking low risks and reliable dividends.

After all, what could be safer than a company which used to be a state-owned monopoly, and which today is far and away the leader in the UK’s fixed and mobile telecoms markets?

In reality, the situation is very different and, despite some recent successes, BT could be much riskier than many investors think. Here are five reasons why.

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Why I won’t be buying shares in Sainsbury’s anytime soon

Sainsbury’s has been one of the better-performing Big Four supermarkets in recent years but the company still faces some enormous challenges.

Chief among these challenges is the changing nature of its customers’ shopping habits.

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Why Marks and Spencer’s shares would have to fall to 300p before I’d invest

Marks and Spencer is one of those companies that always seems to either need or be in the middle of a turnaround. However, despite all the endless talk of turnarounds, one thing that hasn’t turned around yet is its results.

Admittedly the recent 2016 results weren’t terrible, but they weren’t exactly awe-inspiring either.

Revenues, normalised earnings and dividends were all up a bit, but only by low single-digit percentages, and that has more or less been the story for most of the last decade.

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Domino’s Pizza Group: Can future growth justify the current share price?

Domino’s Pizza Group has been a growth monster for most of the past 30 years. Historically it has doubled in size every five years or so and as a result, the shares are currently trading at a premium price.

That premium share price isn’t necessarily a problem though.

If Domino’s can keep doubling in size every few years then the share price will have little choice but to do the same. On the other hand, if that growth fails to materialise, shareholders could be severely disappointed.

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Some lessons learned from the Tesco value trap

When I added Tesco to the UKVI model portfolio in mid-2012 the company was still riding high, having produced an amazing run of rapid and consistent growth over the previous decade.

Even the financial crisis seemed powerless to stop Tesco’s march towards global domination.

Despite this success, in mid-2012 its share price had fallen back to levels last seen in the depths of the financial crisis and first seen in 2005, when the company was literally half its 2012 size.

As a result, the dividend yield was very enticing at 4.9%, especially given the company’s historic dividend growth rate of almost 10% per year.

The share price in mid-2012 was low following a dramatic near-20% decline in early January, which came as a reaction to a disappointing Christmas trading statement.

It was becoming increasingly obvious that some of the company’s international expansion efforts of recent years were not working, while the core UK business was coming under increasing price competition in a tough post-financial crisis world.

At the time I thought it likely that Tesco would easily cope with these issues, but I was wrong. The company’s fortunes went from bad to worse as Tesco became a classic value trap, as shown in the share price chart below.

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Next PLC: Share price declines make this retail stock very interesting

I’ve had my eye on Next PLC for a long time and now, thanks to some recent and dramatic share price declines, the shares may at last be as attractive as the underlying company.

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BAE Systems’ dividend yield is good, but growth is weak

BAE Systems is one of the bluest blue chip stocks you could imagine: It’s big, it’s defensive and it has a dividend yield of more than 4%. It sounds like the perfect choice for a high-yield portfolio.

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Rolls-Royce shares are down by 50% but I’m still not buying

Shares in Rolls-Royce have become one of the most high-profile underperformers of recent years. However, despite the share price now sitting some 50% below its all-time high I’m still not tempted to buy.

There are two main reasons:

  1. The company has a pension scheme which I think is dangerously large
  2. The share price just isn’t low enough

If those two issues were somehow fixed I would be more than happy to invest because, by most other measures, Rolls-Royce appears to be a solid (but not infallible) company.

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Why BP’s dividend remains highly uncertain

The oil price collapse which began in 2014 has not exactly been good news for BP’s share price. More importantly, cheap oil has also seriously undermined BP’s dividend.

For now, the company has maintained the dividend, but how long can that last in the face of dwindling revenues, profits and cash flows?

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Why Unilever’s shares could disappoint investors

Unilever is one of the most popular companies among dividend-focused investors. As one of the world’s largest consumer goods companies, it makes a huge range of well-known products, from Dove soap to Magnum ice cream and Comfort fabric softener.

Over many decades the company has grown its dividend above the rate of inflation, which is precisely why it is so popular with investors.

But despite Unilever’s impressive track record, I think the odds are that its shares will not perform as well in the future as they have in the past.

In the rest of this post, I’ll explain why.

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Is GlaxoSmithKline’s 6% dividend sustainable?

There are some amazingly high dividend yields on offer these days, most notably from some of the largest blue-chip shares in the market.

The question, as always, is whether or not those massive yields are sustainable.

Take GlaxoSmithKline as an example.

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Go-Ahead Group PLC’s debt and pension liabilities could be a problem

Go-Ahead Group is one of the UK’s leading public transport companies, operating buses and trains across most of the country, although primarily in London and the South East.

In this post, I’ll look at Go-Ahead‘s financial track record and balance sheet, and outline why I wouldn’t invest in the company, even if the price was significantly lower than it is today.

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PZ Cussons PLC: Why I would be happy to invest at the right price

PZ Cussons is a favourite among defensive and income-focused investors and for good reason. It has, for example, raised its dividend for 42 consecutive years, which puts it firmly into “dividend aristocrat” territory.

The company has achieved this primarily by selling small-ticket repeat purchase items with strong brands and market-leading positions, such as soap (Imperial Leather), olive oil (Minerva) and washing-up liquid (Morning Fresh).

These high-margin and frequently purchased items give the company a steady and defensive cash income. At the same time, its exposure to emerging markets and willingness to make carefully chosen bolt-on acquisitions have allowed it to grow faster than most other companies.

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Primark now dominates Associated British Foods and its share price

Associated British Foods has become a misnomer. Most of the company’s profits today are generated by its fast-fashion retailer Primark which has, as far as I am aware, very little to do with food.

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WH Smith shares: Solid growth, close to fair value and a hidden danger

When I looked at WH Smith last year I was surprised to find a high-growth company.

The impression I get from its high street stores is of a “stalwart”; a very mature business in a mature industry that is, if anything, being squeezed by the world of online retail.

That image is largely correct, but it ignores the best part of WH Smith – its travel retail business.

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Shares in Stagecoach Group PLC could be riskier than many investors believe

  • Stagecoach Group PLC is a FTSE 250-listed public transport company which is focused on the UK bus market but also has UK rail and North American bus businesses
  • The company has grown quickly and steadily in recent years and the shares are up by about 75% over the last five years
  • My “fair value” share price of 625p is over 50% above the current price, but the company’s financial obligations could be a problem
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